Ranked #1 by Institutional Investor for his coverage of EMEA real estate, Patrick has covered the US and emerging market stocks for 12 years with his HSBC team (ranked #1 for five consecutive years for their Middle East coverage). He has experience in real estate, consumer goods, and business services sectors. Patrick graduated from Wharton and was a CFA charter holder. He joined Toptal to help clients with equity research and financial analysis.
Covered over 20 companies in the real estate, cement, and steel sectors.
Built financial models with integrated income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements. Each model included more than three-year forecasts and five years of historical financials.
Wrote initiation reports on the majority of the companies under coverage, which would be from 20-to-40 pages with views and insights into these companies' strategies.
Recommended stocks using buy, hold, and sell ratings along with 12-month forward target prices for each stock. This was based on detailed valuation models, using both discounted cash flow, multiples and net asset value-based valuation techniques.
Managed a team of four people in Riyadh and two-to-three more offsite to produce quality research on the Saudi market.
Ranked #1 by Institutional Investor and #2 by Extel in emerging EMEA real estate for multiple years in a row. Was also part of the Middle East research team that was ranked #1 for five years straight.
Focus areas: Investment Decision-making, Projected Cash Flow, Finance, Real Estate, Finance Strategy, Data Analysis, Financial Modeling, Valuation Analysis, Valuation, Financial Statements, Equity Research
2008 - 2009
Initiated the coverage of an Egyptian steel company after building the financial model, valuing the company, and writing an initiation report.
Covered a broad range of real estate companies both in Egypt and Lebanon, by writing initiation reports, building financial models, and valuing them.
Created a demand-supply analysis of the Egyptian steel market that drove the investment case on the publicly-traded steel companies.
Prepared a detailed analysis of property markets in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon to build a demand model for real estate companies in these companies by using property transactions and economic and demographic statistics.
Presented sector-specific views to top mutual fund clients both in Egypt and regionally. This involved preparing detailed presentations and being able to respond to any questions on the companies, their sectors, the valuation methodology used, and the general economic environment in Egypt.
Focus areas: Finance, Real Estate, Finance Strategy, Data Analysis, Financial Modeling, Valuation Analysis, Valuation, Financial Statements, Projected Cash Flow, Investment Decision-making, Equity Research
Equity Research Associate
2005 - 2008
Citi Investment Research
Assisted in initiating coverage of the temporary staffing companies (i.e. Kelly Services, Manpower) for the #1 business services team.
Initiated coverage on Marvel Comics in 2006 with a buy rating well before the company was eventually bought by Disney for a significant premium.
Analyzed video game sales and movie sales data to predict the potential financial impact on the video game companies under coverage.
Wrote annual reports on the leisure sector (toys, video games, and cruises) that was used by investment professionals to understand the trends shaping these sectors. These reports were over 100 pages long and examined the sectors in detail.
Updated all the financial models and wrote quick takes on news and earnings releases for the companies under coverage. Was responsible for very quickly analyzing new financial data and using the data to change buy-and-sell recommendations.
Focus areas: Finance Strategy, Data Analysis, Financial Modeling, Valuation Analysis, Valuation, Financial Statements, Projected Cash Flow, Investment Decision-making, Equity Research
Is $4.2 Billion Reasonable? How to Evaluate Instacart's Valuation (Publication)
Grocery delivery startup Instacart has recently been valued at $4.2 billion. In this article, Finance Expert Patrick Gaffney works backwards and uses some basic assumptions to determine if the valuation is reasonable.
With companies opting to stay private for longer, analyzing private companies in this way can help us better understand industries typically shrouded in secrecy and provide clarity on the efficacy of certain business models.
Master's degree in International Relations
2003 - 2005
University of Pennsylvania - Philadelphia, PA, USA
Master of Business Administration degree in Finance
2003 - 2005
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania - Philadelphia, PA, USA