Ahmar Ahmad, Finance Expert in New York, NY, United States
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Ahmar Ahmad

Verified Expert  in Finance

Finance Expert

Location
New York, NY, United States
Toptal Member Since
October 30, 2019

Ahmar, a Wharton and Columbia Business School graduate, is a hedge fund investor with experience across financial services, healthcare, and business services. Trained as a management consultant, he informs his investing with a detailed operational understanding of the business. Freelancing enables him to leverage his quantitative aptitude and modeling skills to help clients improve growth, enhance margins, and better allocate capital.

Excel ExpertInvestment AnalysisFintechFintech ConsultantBankruptcyValuationFinancial ModelingMarket ResearchRevenue & Expense ProjectionsCFOAccountingEquity ResearchCapital MarketsDue DiligenceCredit AnalysisSpecial Situations

Career Highlights

Portfolio Manager
Millennium
Senior Analyst
Blue Mountain Capital
Principal
Roystone Capital

Education Highlights

Master of Business Administration (MBA) Degree
Columbia Business School
Bachelor's Degree
University of Pennsylvania

Case Studies

Work Experience

Portfolio Manager

2019 - PRESENT
Millennium
  • Ran a $100 million GMV equity market-neutral portfolio focused on financial services, fintech, payments, and information services.
  • Promoted to portfolio manager within six months of joining the team as a senior analyst.
  • Expanded team domain expertise to the cutting edge of fintech, including AI-driven lending, BNPL, crypto, and emerging market payments.
Focus areas: Asset Allocation, Financials, Capital Markets, Real Estate, Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), Valuation, Financial Modeling, Three-statement Modeling, Market Research, Equity Research, Equity, Equity Markets, Market Research & Analysis, Strategy, Investing, Portfolio Management, Equity Investment, Payment Processing, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Valuation Modeling, Finance Strategy, Valuation Multiples, Europe, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Financial Services, Fintech, Value Investing, Equity Valuation, Specialty Finance, Emerging Markets, Equity Offerings, Latin America (LATAM), Credit Cards, Financial Markets, Brazil, Business Strategy, Business Model Strategy, Insurance, Business Operations, Fintech Consultant, Venture Capital, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL), Microfinancing, Micro Lending, Consumer Lending, Forecasting, Revenue & Expense Projections, CFO, M&A (Buy-side), Public Companies, Scenario Analysis, Professional Services, Asset Management, Business Models, Investor Presentations, Investment Return Scenario Analysis, eCommerce, United States, Waterfall Modeling, Return Analysis, Excel Expert, Excel 365, Investment Analysis, Financial Analysis, Due Diligence, Competitor Analysis & Profiling, Accounting, Cash Flow Forecasting, SaaS, Excel VBA, Hedge Funds, Data Research, Stock Analysis, Stock Market, Research, Alternative Investments, Investments, Data Analysis, Data Analytics, Business Services

Senior Analyst

2018 - 2019
Blue Mountain Capital
  • Helped launch a market-neutral long/short portfolio focused on global financial institutions and business services companies.
  • Evaluated a $7 billion LBO of a publicly traded data services company by building a bottoms-up operating model, creating investment committee presentations, directing operational and financial due diligence, and authoring the investment memorandum.
  • Analyzed a dividend swap strategy for a global volatility fund to determine whether bottoms-up analysis led to the mispricing of dividend probabilities in European companies.
Focus areas: Equity Offerings, Private Equity Valuation, Private Equity, Equity Valuation, Equity Research, Equity Investment, Equity Markets, Valuation, Financial Modeling, Investing, Real Estate, Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), Three-statement Modeling, Market Research, Equity, Market Research & Analysis, Strategy, Payment Processing, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Valuation Modeling, Finance Strategy, Valuation Multiples, Europe, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Financial Services, Fintech, Value Investing, Asset Allocation, Specialty Finance, Emerging Markets, Latin America (LATAM), Financials, Credit Cards, Financial Markets, Brazil, Capital Markets, Business Strategy, Business Model Strategy, Insurance, Business Operations, Fintech Consultant, Microfinancing, Micro Lending, Consumer Lending, Forecasting, Revenue & Expense Projections, CFO, M&A (Buy-side), Public Companies, Scenario Analysis, Professional Services, Asset Management, Business Models, Investor Presentations, Investment Return Scenario Analysis, United States, Waterfall Modeling, Return Analysis, Excel Expert, Excel 365, Investment Analysis, Financial Analysis, Due Diligence, Competitor Analysis & Profiling, Accounting, Cash Flow Forecasting, SaaS, Excel VBA, Hedge Funds, Data Research, Stock Analysis, Stock Market, Research, Alternative Investments, Investments, Data Analysis, Data Analytics, Business Services

Principal

2013 - 2017
Roystone Capital
  • Co-founded a hedge fund, which managed $3 billion of assets at its peak, with a mandate to invest across the capital structure in credit and equity instruments.
  • Invested in merger arbitrage strategies in the managed care sector, including merger announcements for CI, ANTM, AET, and HUM. The analysis included pro forma analysis of mergers pre- and post-deal and the probability of passing anti-trust scrutiny.
  • Modeled the impact of healthcare reform on hospital companies, leading to a sizable investment in HCA.
  • Researched the impact of immigration reform on IT service companies and invested in Cognizant Technology Solutions (NASDAQ: CTSH).
  • Led diligence in a private label credit card company to determine whether it was adequately forecasting credit losses, which led to an investment in Synchrony Financial (NYSE: SYF).
  • Led investment in "busted" IPO of merchant acquirer/payment processor, First Data, following weak sales results in its North America GBS Segment, leveraging numerous channel checks on its sales force and competitive position to inform the purchase.
  • Invested in sovereign debt and GDP warrants of the Republic of Argentina due to a legal dispute with a large hedge fund. The process included meetings with central bankers, policymakers, politicians, and economists to understand the macro backdrop.
Focus areas: Latin America (LATAM), Argentina, Emerging Markets, Equity Offerings, Equity Research, Equity Markets, Equity Valuation, Equity, Valuation, Financial Modeling, Credit Investing, Distressed/Special Situations, Investing, Real Estate, Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), Three-statement Modeling, Market Research, Market Research & Analysis, Strategy, Equity Investment, Payment Processing, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Valuation Modeling, Finance Strategy, Valuation Multiples, Europe, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Financial Services, Healthcare, Fintech, Value Investing, Asset Allocation, Specialty Finance, Credit Analysis, Asia, Canada, Telecommunications, Distressed Assets, Financials, Credit Cards, Financial Markets, Turkey, Venezuela, Capital Markets, Business Strategy, Business Model Strategy, Insurance, Business Operations, Health Insurance, Fintech Consultant, Microfinancing, Micro Lending, Consumer Lending, Forecasting, Revenue & Expense Projections, CFO, M&A (Buy-side), Public Companies, Scenario Analysis, Professional Services, Asset Management, Business Models, Investor Presentations, Investment Return Scenario Analysis, United States, Waterfall Modeling, Return Analysis, Excel Expert, Excel 365, Investment Analysis, Financial Analysis, Due Diligence, Competitor Analysis & Profiling, Bankruptcy, Accounting, Cash Flow Forecasting, Debt Restructuring, Restructuring, Financial Restructuring, Excel VBA, Hedge Funds, Stock Analysis, Stock Market, Research, Alternative Investments, Investments, Data Analysis, Business Services

Partner

2006 - 2013
Owl Creek Asset Management
  • Evaluated ideas as a generalist for a $3.5 billion event-driven equity/distressed debt hedge fund.
  • Served as a panelist on "The European Debt Crisis" for the American Bankruptcy Institute's 14th Annual New York City Bankruptcy Conference, providing an investment framework around sovereign debt.
  • Performed a market survey of financial planners to assess the true liability of Cigna's variable annuity death benefit reserves, leading to significant investment in its stock.
  • Bought financial stocks during the financial crisis after the US government unveiled its Troubled Asset Relief Program, including BAC, C, JPM, and FITB.
  • Invested in UK bank perpetual preferred stock after government capital injections, researching holders' rights through prospectus reviews and determining appropriate investment strategy by building models to value securities via distressed exchanges.
  • Researched the derivatives exchange CME Group following the failure of MF Global, leading to an investment in equity due to a misunderstanding of losses to a clearing institution.
  • Invested in Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. following its bankruptcy and Chapter 11 reorganization, valuing the estate and projected distributions among the various subsidiaries through the flow of equity and intercompany loans.
  • Led investments in Irish financial institutions, including Anglo-Irish senior bonds, Bank of Ireland lower tier 2 debt, and Irish Covered Bonds, creating detailed models determining capitalization needs, security holder rights, and risk-reward.
  • Built a financial model for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following their conservatorship, leading to out of the money option investments in the GSE preferred stock.
Focus areas: Bankruptcy & Insolvency, Distressed Assets, Distressed/Special Situations, Valuation Modeling, Valuation, Financial Modeling, Credit Investing, Value Investing, Investing, Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), Three-statement Modeling, Market Research, Equity Research, Equity, Equity Markets, Market Research & Analysis, Strategy, Equity Investment, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Finance Strategy, Valuation Multiples, Europe, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Financial Services, Healthcare, Asset Allocation, Equity Valuation, Specialty Finance, Credit Analysis, Asia, Telecommunications, Retail & Wholesale, Financials, Credit Cards, Financial Markets, Brazil, Payment Processing, Capital Markets, Business Strategy, Business Model Strategy, Insurance, Business Operations, Health Insurance, Forecasting, Revenue & Expense Projections, CFO, M&A (Buy-side), Public Companies, Scenario Analysis, Professional Services, Asset Management, Business Models, Investor Presentations, Investment Return Scenario Analysis, Pitch Decks, United States, Waterfall Modeling, Return Analysis, Excel Expert, Excel 365, Investment Analysis, Financial Analysis, Due Diligence, Competitor Analysis & Profiling, Bankruptcy, Accounting, Cash Flow Forecasting, Debt Restructuring, Restructuring, Financial Restructuring, Excel VBA, Hedge Funds, Stock Analysis, Stock Market, Research, Alternative Investments, Investments, Data Analysis

Associate

1999 - 2005
Stern Stewart
  • Served as a corporate finance consultant implementing the "Economic Value Added" (EVA) framework within Fortune 500 companies.
  • Coordinated a global research project examining the impact of revenue growth on value creation, later published as the Harvard Business Review article, "Champions of Profitable Growth."
  • Built a new store investment model for Koninklijke Ahold N.V., which was adopted by the CFO for the evaluation of all future capital expenditures and real estate transactions.
  • Created an outsourcing operating model for IBM, which was named a "Worldwide Best Practice."
  • Designed a customized economic profit framework for Williams Companies.
Focus areas: Economic Value Added, Valuation, Market Research, Financial Modeling, Strategy, Three-statement Modeling, Financial Planning & Analysis (FP&A), Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Market Research & Analysis, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Finance Strategy, Valuation Multiples, Retail & Wholesale, Energy, Business Strategy, Business Model Strategy, Business Operations, Forecasting, Revenue & Expense Projections, CFO, Public Companies, Scenario Analysis, Small Business Consultants, Business Planning, Business Intelligence Consultant, Professional Services, Business Models, Budgeting, United States, Waterfall Modeling, Excel Expert, Financial Analysis, Competitor Analysis & Profiling, Accounting, Cash Flow Forecasting, Excel VBA, Stock Analysis, Research, Data Analysis
2005 - 2007

Master of Business Administration (MBA) Degree in Value Investing

Columbia Business School - New York, NY

1995 - 1999

Bachelor's Degree in Finance and Accounting

University of Pennsylvania - Philadelphia, PA

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