High-skilled Job Report for Q2 2026

This is an overview of major findings. Download the full report for more insights.

Key Highlights

State of the High-skilled Job Market

Each quarter, Toptal analyzes job market data relevant to the Toptal Talent Network, which includes more than 30,000 highly vetted professionals in technology, design, finance, marketing, and strategic consulting. In addition to monitoring broader global data for quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and year-over-year (YoY) trends, Toptal, the world’s largest remote workforce, has designed a unique scoring system, the Toptal Market Strength Score, which represents demand for experienced technology and professional services personnel.

Because Toptal and its talent network are fully distributed, we calculate primary scores specifically for the remote and hybrid work market, as well as secondary scores that apply to all work models, including remote, hybrid, and in-office roles.

The scores are based on new job postings, advertised compensation, and actual hiring.

Key findings from the Q2 report, released in July 2026, include the following:

• Demand for experienced remote and hybrid technology and professional services personnel rose 5.4% QoQ and 8.9% YoY. Demand for all experienced technology and professional services roles, including in-office jobs, increased 7.1% QoQ and 12.6% YoY, slightly outperforming remote and hybrid roles alone.

• Broader job market data points to weaker demand for junior-level workers. Postings for all professions and all experience levels in the US and most other large economies decreased by an average of 3.6% QoQ and 9% YoY.

• Technology company layoffs decreased 47% QoQ, but increased 5% YoY. The QoQ drop is largely due to an unusually high number of layoffs in Q1, when Oracle dismissed approximately 20,000 workers at the very end of the quarter. The YoY elevation in tech layoffs illustrates the divergent trends defining the current market: Even as some companies are reducing headcount broadly, employers are simultaneously competing for a narrower set of experienced, specialized professionals.

• The widespread adoption of AI is a major driver of the trends seen in this report. AI has accelerated a fundamental reshuffling across nearly every sector, prompting companies to reevaluate business models, product strategies, and the types of expertise they need. Demand has slowed for some skill sets and grown for others, as organizations shift from volume hiring to leaner teams of versatile senior professionals who pair deep domain expertise with AI fluency, business acumen, and cross-functional agility.

• Broader economic conditions are another contributor to the trends described in this report. The US labor market, a bellwether for global financial and economic health, was more resilient in Q2 than in Q1 but remains unpredictable, with modest job gains in April and May but slower growth in June.

As noted in the report, AI has been one major driver of volatility in the labor market for the last several quarters. But organizations’ understanding of the technology is starting to mature, and it is clear that while AI is an extraordinary multiplier of expertise, creativity, and human judgment, it brings great risk when approached as a replacement for those qualities. This evolving understanding of the technology has strengthened the demand for experienced professionals who can use AI to extend the impact of their own expertise and bring strong judgment, domain knowledge, and human creativity to the workplace.

Impact of AI

Despite Recent Volatility, Technology Job Market Shows Resilience as Broader Market Declines

Global job postings across all professions and experience levels remain lower than they were two years ago. However, postings for software engineers (a useful proxy for the broader technology sector) began to rebound in the second quarter of 2025, even as the overall market remained on a downward trajectory. Software developer postings have shown volatility in recent months, but the cumulative trend continues to point toward recovery, in contrast to the continued downward trend in postings across all roles.

Several factors may be driving this rebound. Many organizations continue to prioritize investments in software development, cloud infrastructure, and AI capabilities even as they slow hiring in other functions. At the same time, rapid AI adoption is creating new technical initiatives that require experienced talent to build, implement, integrate, and scale AI systems. The data suggests AI is increasing demand for software engineering talent rather than replacing it.

Technology Layoffs

Layoffs at Technology Companies Remain Elevated YoY

Layoffs at technology companies dropped 47% QoQ (Q2 2026 versus Q1 2026), but rose 5% YoY (Q2 2025 versus Q2 2026). The sharp QoQ decline largely reflects an outsized spike in Q1 layoffs, driven by Oracle’s dismissal of roughly 20,000 workers in the final weeks of that quarter.

While the YoY elevation in tech layoffs may at first seem at odds with other data showing increased job postings for software engineers, it’s important to keep in mind that tech company layoffs apply to all role types, seniority levels, and functions. Because layoff data captures workforce reductions broadly while demand data reflects targeted appetite for specific talent profiles, the two can move in opposite directions simultaneously.

Demand Overview

Toptal Market Strength Scores for 10 Key Areas of Expertise

Toptal Market Strength Scores are based on job listings, compensation, and hiring, as reported by Lightcast. Below is a table of the scores for remote and hybrid professionals with five or more years of experience in 10 areas of expertise.

A negative change of more than -15% equals a score of Poor, a change between -15% and +15% equals a score of Moderate, and a positive change greater than +15% equals a score of Strong.

Detailed insights for each area of expertise are available in the full report.

International Job Market

Global Job Growth Remains Sluggish

New job postings for all positions and experience levels remained soft across the US and most other large economies with comparable data in Q2 2026.

The QoQ trends in new job postings across all professions and work models were as follows:

• Australia, France, Germany, Ireland, the UK, and the US saw declines ranging from 0.8% to 8.2%.
• Canada saw a 0.4% increase, the only country to experience QoQ growth.
• Job listings across the entire eurozone (all countries that use the euro currency) decreased by an average of 4.5% QoQ.

The YoY trends in new job postings across all professions and work models were as follows:

• Job postings were down YoY across all measured countries.
• Canada experienced the smallest decline (2.4%) and France the largest (17.3%).
• Job postings across the eurozone decreased by an average of 12.5% YoY.

While demand for experienced technology and professional services talent has clearly rebounded from the Q4 2023 low point, the broader global job market has been slower to turn around.

US Job Market Forecast

Projections for Job Growth in Q3 2026

Toptal’s US Job Market Forecast for Q2 2026 is built on a statistical model with predictive value for three key Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment indices: all US job openings, US professional services job openings, and US information services (i.e., technology) job openings. Our model also has predictive value for the market segment most relevant to Toptal: remote and hybrid professional services and technology roles that require at least five years of experience. (We use Lightcast data for this projection, because it can be segmented more granularly than BLS information.)

The model is based on the past 16 years of remote and hybrid job postings on Lightcast, and incorporates a set of macroeconomic variables, including the U-6 unemployment rate (which captures both unemployment and underemployment), high-yield credit spreads, hiring rates, and inflation-adjusted GDP. The resulting directional signals are then compared to Toptal’s own client demand data for remote and hybrid professionals.

Toptal’s predictive model suggests the following market signals for Q3 2026:

• Job growth for all US roles is projected to increase slightly. BLS data shows that job growth has been declining at an average rate of 3.5% per quarter for the last several years. Our model suggests a departure from the BLS trends for Q3, with slightly positive growth.
• Job growth for all US professional services roles is projected to be effectively flat. BLS data shows that professional services job growth has declined by about 4% per quarter over the last several years. Our model suggests a departure from the BLS trends for Q3 and that the decline will level off.
• Job growth for all US information services (technology) roles is projected to increase moderately. BLS data shows that information services job growth has declined at about 5.5% per quarter over the last several years. Our model suggests a departure from the BLS trends for Q3, with a moderate increase in growth.
• Job growth for experienced remote and hybrid US professional services and technology roles is projected to increase moderately. Lightcast data shows that job growth in this segment rose at a rate of about 3.2% per quarter over the last several years. According to our model, job growth for this segment will continue to increase in Q3, but at a larger magnitude than its historical average.

These signals should be understood as directional indicators, not full predictions. The final state of the US job market in Q3 2026 will depend on additional macroeconomic, policy, and sector-specific factors that are not captured in this analysis.

Report Methodology

Toptal’s Analysis of the Data

Toptal calculates QoQ and YoY market strength scores based on the change in new job postings, median advertised compensation, and actual hiring activity for technology and professional services personnel with at least five years of experience, as reported by Lightcast. Other trends are calculated based on data from Staffing Industry Analysts, Hacker News, LinkedIn, Indeed, and We Work Remotely, as noted throughout the report.

Please note: Some of the source data changes in real time and may shift slightly between early July 2026, when the calculations were done, and the time of publication. This is common with indices of this kind and typically does not materially affect the trends and major findings.

Some parts of the report have been redacted for public release. If you are interested in the unredacted version please reach out to insights@toptal.com.