High-skilled Job Report for Q3 2026

This is an overview of major findings. Download the full report for more insights.

Key Highlights

State of the High-skilled Job Market

Each quarter, Toptal analyzes job market data relevant to the Toptal Talent Network, which includes more than 30,000 highly vetted professionals in technology, design, finance, marketing, and strategic consulting. In addition to monitoring broader global data for quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and year-over-year (YoY) trends, Toptal, the world’s largest remote workforce, has designed a unique scoring system, the Toptal Market Strength Score, which represents demand for experienced technology and professional services personnel.

Because Toptal and its talent network are fully distributed, we calculate primary scores specifically for the remote and hybrid work market, as well as secondary scores that apply to all work models, including remote, hybrid, and in-office roles.

The scores are based on new job postings, advertised compensation, and actual hiring.

Key findings from the Q3 report, released in October 2026, include the following:

• Demand for experienced remote and hybrid technology and professional services personnel declined 7.6% QoQ but increased 4.5% YoY. Demand for all experienced technology and professional services roles, including in-office jobs, decreased 8.6% QoQ and increased 6.3% YoY, slightly underperforming remote and hybrid roles QoQ but slightly outperforming them YoY.
• Broader job market data shows early signs of stabilization. Postings for all professions and all levels of experience in the US and most other large economies increased by an average of 2.1% QoQ but decreased by 5.2% YoY.
• Technology company layoffs decreased 46% QoQ and 22% YoY, reaching their lowest level since Q4 2024. For the first time since Q1 2025, no single tech company laid off more than 5,000 workers. Together with two consecutive quarterly declines in total tech layoffs, this suggests the latest wave of major workforce reductions may be subsiding.
• The widespread adoption of AI is a major driver of the trends seen in this report. AI has accelerated a fundamental reshuffling across nearly every sector, prompting companies to reevaluate business models, product strategies, and the types of expertise they need.
• Broader economic conditions are another contributor to the trends described in this report. The US labor market, a bellwether for global financial and economic health, was weaker in Q3 than in Q2 and remains unpredictable. The economy lost jobs in July, while August saw moderate job gains, and growth slowed sharply in September.

As noted in the report, while AI is not “taking” jobs at scale, the expectation of what AI can do is slowing hiring as companies rethink workforce strategy and shift hiring budgets toward AI implementation and infrastructure. Over the past several quarters, organizations have been moving away from volume hiring to leaner teams of versatile senior professionals who pair deep domain expertise with AI fluency and cross-functional agility. In light of these trends, the QoQ drop in demand for experienced technology and professional services personnel seen in Q3 is likely a temporary correction, as companies decide where to invest in AI next.

Impact of AI

Postings for Software Engineers Outpace Postings for All Roles as AI Continues to Drive Demand

Global job postings across all professions and experience levels remain lower than they were two years ago. However, postings for software engineers (a useful proxy for the broader technology sector) began to rebound in the second quarter of 2025 and have continued to trend upward.

Several factors may be driving this rebound. Many organizations continue to prioritize investments in software development, cloud infrastructure, and AI capabilities even as they slow hiring in other functions. At the same time, rapid AI adoption is creating new technical initiatives that require experienced talent to build, implement, integrate, and scale AI systems. The data suggests that AI is functioning as a complement to software engineers, rather than a substitute.

Technology Layoffs

Tech Layoffs Reach Lowest Level in Nearly 2 Years

Layoffs at technology companies dropped 46% QoQ, after a QoQ drop of 47% in Q2. Layoffs were also down 22% YoY. These declines bring layoffs to their lowest level since Q4 2024. Additionally, no single tech company laid off more than 5,000 workers in Q3, the first time that has happened since Q1 2025. Together, these trends suggest that the latest wave of major tech workforce reductions may be subsiding.

That said, the sector is likely to remain volatile, in part because of energy costs. AI has changed the technology labor market’s exposure to the macroeconomy, due to the substantial electricity requirements of AI infrastructure like data centers. Energy prices can have downstream effects on financing costs, tech company valuations, investment activity, physical infrastructure, and workforce requirements.

Demand Overview

Toptal Market Strength Scores for 10 Key Areas of Expertise

Toptal Market Strength Scores are based on job listings, compensation, and hiring, as reported by Lightcast. Below is a table of the scores for remote and hybrid professionals with five or more years of experience in 10 areas of expertise.

A negative change of more than -15% equals a score of Poor, a change between -15% and +15% equals a score of Moderate, and a positive change greater than +15% equals a score of Strong.

Detailed insights for each area of expertise are available in the full report.

International Job Market

Global Market Shows Early Signs of Stabilization

New job posting trends for all positions and experience levels were mostly positive across the US and other large economies QoQ, but global trends were mostly negative YoY.

The QoQ trends in new job postings across all professions and work models were as follows:

• Australia, Canada, Ireland, the UK, and the US saw increases ranging from 2.4% to 6.1%.
• France and Germany saw decreases of 3.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
• Job listings across the entire eurozone (all countries that use the euro currency) decreased by an average of 0.8% QoQ.

The YoY trends in new job postings across all professions and work models were as follows:

• Australia, Canada, and the US saw increases ranging from 1.0% to 3.8%.
• France, Germany, Ireland, and the UK saw declines ranging from 7.4% to 16.6%.
• Job postings across the eurozone decreased by an average of 11.2% YoY.

While demand for experienced technology and professional services talent has clearly rebounded from the Q4 2023 low point, the broader global job market has been slower to turn around.

US Job Market Forecast

Projections for Job Growth in Q4 2026

Toptal’s US Job Market Forecast for Q4 2026 is built on a statistical model with predictive value for three key Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment indices: all US job openings, US professional services job openings, and US information services (i.e., technology) job openings. Our model also has predictive value for the market segment most relevant to Toptal: remote and hybrid professional services and technology roles that require at least five years of experience. (We use Lightcast data for this projection, because it can be segmented more granularly than BLS information.)

The model is based on the past 16 years of remote and hybrid job postings on Lightcast, and incorporates a set of macroeconomic variables, including the U-6 unemployment rate (which captures both unemployment and underemployment), high-yield credit spreads, hiring rates, and inflation-adjusted GDP. The resulting directional signals are then compared to Toptal’s own client demand data for remote and hybrid professionals.

Toptal’s predictive model suggests the following market signals for Q4 2026:

• Job growth for all US roles is projected to be effectively flat. BLS data shows that job growth has been declining at an average rate of 2.6% per quarter for the last several years. Our model suggests a departure from the BLS trends for Q4 and that the decline will level off.
• Job growth for all US professional services roles is projected to be effectively flat. BLS data shows that professional services job growth has declined at about 3.1% per quarter over the last several years. Our model suggests a departure from the BLS trends for Q4 and that the decline will level off.

• Job growth for all US information services (technology) roles is projected to decline slightly. BLS data shows that information services job growth has declined at about 6.4% per quarter over the last several years. Our model suggests job growth will decline in Q4, but at a smaller magnitude than the BLS average.

• Job growth for experienced US remote and hybrid professional services and technology roles is projected to increase moderately. Lightcast data shows that job growth in this segment rose at a rate of about 3.4% per quarter over the last several years. According to our model, job growth for this segment will continue to increase in Q4, but at a larger magnitude than its historical average.

These signals should be understood as directional indicators, not full predictions. The final state of the US job market in Q4 2026 will depend on additional macroeconomic, policy, and sector-specific factors that are not captured in this analysis.

Report Methodology

Toptal’s Analysis of the Data

Toptal calculates QoQ and YoY market strength scores based on the change in new job postings, median advertised compensation, and actual hiring activity for technology and professional services personnel with at least five years of experience, as reported by Lightcast. Other trends are calculated based on data from Staffing Industry Analysts, Hacker News, LinkedIn, Indeed, and We Work Remotely, as noted throughout the report.

Please note: Some of the source data changes in real time and may shift slightly between early October 2026, when the calculations were done, and the time of publication. This is common with indices of this kind and typically does not materially affect the trends and major findings.

Some parts of the report have been redacted for public release. If you are interested in the unredacted version please reach out to insights@toptal.com.