Does DTC Have a Future in the CPG Industry?

Digital interactions and online transactions are table stakes across most industries these days. While a few companies are raising the bar on innovation, most are lagging behind on the maturity curve and trying to catch up. Today, no industry is as impacted by the need for powerful online interactions and transactions as consumer packaged goods (CPG). This industry’s digitally savvy consumers have constantly rising expectations that are colored by their experiences across a wide array of other industries and platforms. The direct-to-consumer (DTC) model has played a pivotal role in transforming the CPG industry, but is there a future for DTC in CPG? Or will trailblazing CPG companies drive the industry in another direction?

As Toptal’s Digital Customer Experience Practice Lead, my work spans a diverse range of clients within the CPG sector, from disruptive startups—DTC natives, in this context—to Fortune 500 corporations. A consistent insight from serving CPG clients is the significant role DTC plays in their forward-looking strategies—an observation shared by Toptal’s DTC sales lead Brennan Shanks. Whether as a supplementary approach to bolster first-party data or a fundamental aspect of their channel strategy, virtually every CPG company is exploring ways to align with future consumer expectations. If you’re not, you should. My enthusiasm for human-centered design and understanding consumer behavior informs my view that these expectations encompass digital engagement, online shopping, hyper-personalization, and a synergy between brand identity and individual values—hallmarks of a genuine DTC approach.

However, transforming an organization to effectively deliver on these fronts, especially for well-established entities burdened by legacy systems and a lack of data maturity, is no small feat. There is no universal blueprint for executing a DTC strategy that guarantees a CPG company’s optimal positioning for the future. Nonetheless, it is feasible to select a path that closely matches a company’s risk tolerance and business goals. Here’s how smart CPG companies can plan their DTC futures to remain market leaders.

From Shelves to Screens: The Evolution of DTC

The DTC model in the CPG industry has disrupted traditional commerce paradigms, reshaping consumer engagement and how brands deliver products. Originally defined as a sales model where brands sell directly to consumers and skip intermediaries such as retailers, DTC has evolved beyond transactions.

The global DTC market has experienced significant growth over the past few years, reaching approximately USD 301.79 billion in 2023 and a projected market value of USD 468.18 billion by 2032​​. In terms of market dynamics, DTC sales currently account for nearly one in seven e-commerce dollars globally, a proportion that’s expected to increase rapidly. Growth in DTC is part of a broader trend in e-commerce, which saw substantial expansion during the COVID-19 pandemic. Retail e-commerce sales experienced an increase of more than 26% in 2020 and more than 16% in 2021, with DTC being one of the highest-growth categories. In 2020 alone, DTC sales grew by nearly 45%​​. This surge is interlinked with the overall increase in e-commerce activities during the pandemic.

CPG companies embrace DTC for various reasons, from increasing sales and controlling brand experiences to capturing first-party data for innovation and personalization. Each company’s approach to DTC can vary, too, including creating fully accessible e-commerce brands, DTC-specific brands, or even making distinct acquisitions. Take, for example, Harry’s versus Gillette. Harry’s disrupted the shaving market by launching subscription-based products that are primarily DTC. Harry’s razors and replacement blades were initially priced lower than Gillette’s. Gillette’s response was to create an innovation hub called Gillette Labs. They created a waitlist for their new product launches through their DTC site, which also captured first-party data. They are now expanding their omnichannel marketing via TikTok and influencer-based sites.

While Gillette recognizes the importance of retail partners, DTC is their lifeblood for collecting data and insights and reaching new audiences—something DTC native companies easily gain access to by offering personalized services, subscription models, and brand alignment. This model caters to consumers who demand value, personalization, sustainability, and immersive experiences. Successful DTC natives, like sleep-products company Casper, create ecosystems through partnerships and expanding into physical spaces to enhance customer experiences and reach new audiences. For established CPG companies, like Gillette, entering the DTC space is a defensive strategy that requires clear objectives in order to maintain market leadership, gain access to valuable data, and compete against DTC native companies.

The North Star: Setting DTC Objectives

Prior to joining Toptal, I served in execution-focused roles across customer, innovation, digital, and growth, and as a strategy consultant with Booz & Company. While forecasting the future and devising strategies is fun, success lies in execution. The journey toward a successful DTC implementation begins with defining clear, achievable objectives. DTC objectives are intrinsically linked to the benefits that this model offers. Identifying the primary objective for a DTC initiative is a multifaceted process that involves:

• Consumer Insight: Understanding consumer needs and expectations is crucial. This involves gathering and analyzing qualitative and quantitative data through methods like surveys and focus groups.
• Market Research and Competitor Analysis: Assessing the market landscape and competitor strategies is vital. This helps identify gaps in the market, competitive advantages, and effective brand positioning.
• Business Analysis: Reviewing internal business metrics such as revenue trends, product category performance, and regional market dynamics provides insights into potential areas of growth or improvement.
• Ideation and Prioritization With Leadership: Collaborative brainstorming sessions with the company’s leadership and board are essential. These discussions should focus on aligning the DTC objectives with the company’s overall vision and strategy.
• Board and Leadership Alignment: The primary DTC objective needs to be a top-down decision, fully understood and supported across the business. This ensures that everyone is aligned and equipped to make decisions that are consistent with the agreed-upon goal.

For a DTC strategy to be effective, it must be embraced across the organization. This requires clear communication, training, and perhaps most importantly, demonstrating how the DTC objectives align with the overall success of the company.

Once the primary objective is set and communicated, it becomes the North Star for all DTC-related decisions and strategies. This guiding principle should be reflected in every aspect of the DTC transformation, from marketing and sales to logistics and customer service. Regular reviews and adjustments may be necessary to ensure that the DTC strategy remains aligned with the evolving market and consumer trends.

Choosing Your Path: The DTC Archetypes

At Toptal, we have experience working with a range of CPG companies, from established global brands transforming into digitally enabled portfolios maintaining both retail and DTC channels to digital natives launching their e-commerce operations to new audiences. Based on this experience, we have developed a proprietary framework of DTC archetypes, an intuitive tool for understanding and strategizing in the evolving world of DTC business models. At its core, Toptal’s DTC Archetypes Framework is structured around two critical dimensions: Primary Objective and Risk Appetite.

Primary Objective: This dimension categorizes companies based on their primary goal—which may shift over time—in the DTC space. All higher-order objectives usually drive outcomes at the lower levels, and companies should aim to continuously progress toward the right. The objectives are:

• Generate revenue
• Capture data
• Control brand experience

Risk Appetite: This dimension assesses a company’s willingness to take risks (strategic, financial, cultural, and brand) and doesn’t as easily shift over time. The levels are:

• Low: Diversify portfolio (e.g., launching a new brand)
• Medium: Invest in big bets (like acquisitions, new companies, or new channels)
• High: Transform the entire business model

The intersection of these dimensions results in a three-by-three matrix, creating nine unique DTC archetypes. Each archetype embodies a distinct approach to DTC, characterized by specific traits, strategies, opportunities, challenges, and future outlooks.

Identifying where a company sits within this matrix is crucial to understanding what the future might hold. It involves a thorough assessment of the company’s current DTC objectives and its risk tolerance. For instance, a company primarily focused on generating revenue with a low appetite for risk would align with The Protector Archetype.

An essential insight from this framework is the progression toward the right side of the matrix, which indicates a higher level of DTC maturity. Moving from a focus on revenue generation to controlling the brand experience suggests a deeper engagement with and utilization of DTC dynamics.

However, shifting a company’s level of risk appetite is generally more challenging. This aspect is often deeply ingrained in a company’s culture and influenced by its history, leadership, and market position. For instance, startups may naturally incline toward higher risk levels due to their need to establish a market presence quickly. In contrast, established companies might prefer a more conservative approach, prioritizing the protection of their existing market share, retail relationships, and reputation.

The DTC Archetype Framework is a reflection of broader trends in the retail and e-commerce sectors and provides a nuanced and comprehensive tool for companies to navigate the complex and rapidly evolving DTC environment. By understanding where they currently stand in this framework, companies can better strategize their growth, align with consumer expectations, and adapt to dynamic market conditions.

The Future of CPG for Your Archetype

As framed early on, there is no one-size-fits-all approach in DTC. Each company operates differently internally and within unique contexts externally. However, the above framework—and your archetype—can provide guidance regarding a future path, based on a company’s primary objective and risk profile.

The evolution of DTC in the CPG industry represents a complex yet rewarding journey. Embracing digital transformation and consumer-centric approaches is crucial for companies aiming to stay competitive. The future of DTC in CPG will likely be shaped by technological advancements, changing consumer behaviors, and the strategic alignment of brands with their consumers’ values and lifestyles. However, the opportunities and challenges will differ depending on which archetype a company most closely aligns to. As the industry continues to evolve, staying attuned to emerging trends and consumer preferences will be key for companies looking to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the evolving market​​.

Overall, the DTC model in the CPG industry is more than just a sales channel; it’s a direct conduit to understanding and catering to consumer behavior and preferences, essential for future growth and success in the industry.

Have a question for Sara Kahlau, Brennan Shanks, or their teams? Get in touch.